Trevdog's pro football picks for this weekend

[Trevdog]

I had a hell of a run there for 3 weeks I hit parlays every week. It had to end in week 4.

I saw a few spreads that didn't look right this week so I paid a visit to the local sports book.

3 way parlay $20 to win $120
Ravens -2 (who can't beat the Bengals by 3?)
Browns - 5 1/2 (I'm not impressed by San Diego)
Chiefs -4 (my Raiders just suck, and the Chiefs may go all the way)

As a Raider fan, I think I can tell when they are really outmatched. I think they deserve at least 8 points from the chiefs, so I also put a straight bet on the chiefs, $110 to win $100. I think that's about as close to a lock as they get.

 

[mvmaxx]

Nice bet. Double it up for me. LOL

 

[dbolme]

I disagree.

San Diego is NOT AS BAD AS THEIR RECORD. They can kick some serious ass once they get things rolling. David Boston and Ladanian Tomlinson... Can't go wrong! And to the haters that say Boston doesn't do shit -- check out his last game, he is the fucking man.

Also, the Bengals don't seem to be the Bungles anymore, but I have to say that's a fucked up spread against Baltimore. Jamal Lewis and Ray Lewis are the fucking shit -- unstoppable players.

I'm also kinda scared of the Raiders, you just don't know if they're going to break out of that slump or not. Myself, I hope they don't, but crazier shit has happened in the NFL

 

[dbolme]

I hope that straight bet was moneyline! Spreads can fuck you in the ass hardcore sometimes -- and KC hasn't won by a lot lately.

 

[Trevdog]

No, its not the moneyline, the payoff was crap. Of course I could lose b/c of the spread, but without risk it wouldn't be gambling, right?

 

[dbolme]

That was a rough bet, you're 0/2 so far
what did I tell you about the bengals not being the bungles anymore hehe

 

[Trevdog]

Rough bet? LOL. I'm down $20 for the week so far. I realize that it takes you 4 hours to earn that, but it only takes me 6 minutes, so I'll survive.

If I go 1/3, I'll be up $80 for the week. If not, I'll be up well over $500 for the season.

This is mostly for fun anyway. I realize that this is no way to make money, which is why I don't bet much. I also bet these silly parlays which serious gamblers (aka serious dummies) don't touch, the odds paid aren't justified by the true odds of picking 3-5 games correctly. If I hit a few nice parlays, I'll just blow the cash on something fun, like growth hormone.

If you had actually put your money where your mouth is, I'd congratute you on your wins. But let me ask this, how much money did you make by betting against me? Nothing? That's what I thought. If you had any more confidence than I did, you'd bet yourself. It's gambling, and the house has the advantage.

And I guess you didn't get the memo, but the bungles have been the worst team in football for more than a decade. And San Diego may not be as bad as their record, but they're plenty bad. The bottom line is that on any given Sunday, any team in the league can beat any other team in the league.

 

[dbolme]

Hey.... easy man.... no offence meant... take it easy

Bengals however have made quite the improvement, they will no longer be the asshole of the NFL

I've come up with a nice way of almost always winning. Sometimes I can even hit 7-8 team $1 parlays which will usually bring in over $300. For example, my picks this week were:

Carolina (Lost)
NO (Won)
St.L (Won)
Min(Won)
Detroit (Lost)
Jets (Won)
Seattle (Won)
SD (Won)

I can usually consistantly win, but sometimes I have a really bad week. I realize that posting these after the game makes it seem like complete bullshit, so I'll post my picks for next week on Friday/Saturday, whenever I calculate my spreads.

I usually bet like this:

5 game straight bet - money depends on teams playing
2 game money line - money depends on teams playing
5 7-8 team $1 parlay (including over/under)
5 1-4 team $4 parlay (including over/under)

I also like to bet at gameday because they have a nice juice offer if you bet on a Friday.... Every team is -105 ($105 to win $100), its a nice way to pick up the closest thing to "for sure" that is possible. It's a good way to go broke if you get unlucky.

 

[dbolme]

Forgot to put in the pick for the Monday night game:

KC -4 to win -- Oakland may make a comeback... but it's not happening in this MNF game

I also took the over in this game. KC seems to score 30+ in most games, and it looks liek the raiders average around 25 pts to me (i didn't actually calculate it)

 

[Trevdog]

Coolio. I'll have to remember that bet on a Friday thing. If that is done in the Tahoe area, it isn't advertised.

 

[dbolme]

I bet online..... there's a few places you can go but i'm not sure if I can post it on here, so I'll PM you

 

[hitmansb]

screw parlays...play teasers...the spread won't bite you in the ass nearly as often that way. And I'll PM you the best place to play.

 

[dbolme]

I never really played teasers before, maybe I'll give it a try this weekend.

 

[Trevdog]

IMO teasers are probably the worst bet you can make. Much worse than parlays. The amount the spread moves doesn't begin to compensate for having to correctly pick 2 games.

 

[dbolme]

I don't quite understand how teasers work myself, I've never used them.

 

[Trevdog]

With a teaser, you have to pick 2 games correctly, but you get to move the spread of each of the teams you bet on 6 points in that team's favor. It pays even money.

 

[dbolme]

Sounds easy to win

 

[beef1977]

no offense, but i seriously doubt anyone that says "I've come up with a nice way of almost always winning." if it were true, you would do it for a living and be extremely wealthy.

i've read a book by one of the best sports bettors and he says the goal of all true sports gamblers that do it for a living is to win only 57% of the time. if you win more than that, you arent playing enough games to maximize your total profits.

 

[dbolme]

Maybe one day I will be able to do it for a living.

I am pretty consistant, I usually will win 3/5 games I bet on. Sometimes ill even hit 7/8 team parlays ($1 to win 300).

Biggest I've hit was a 7 team parlay which was $10 to win $3000

A couple weeks back I had a 7 team parlay which was around $100 to win $30000 and greenbay was the only team that fucked me over.

I usually calculate spreads of various teams and if the spread that the sportbooks come out with favors my spread, I make a play. If not, I don't usually play, but a lot of the times I will anyway.